When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play.
Small atmospheric events thousands of miles away can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in several days' time.
Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather, it becomes much harder to offer specific detail as per shorter range forecasts.
This effect is known as chaos theory.
How to interpret WXMickleton's 3 month forecasts?
The table below shows the likelihood of whether a future month will be below average, average or above average as well as dry, average, or wet. These are updated at the start of every month.
AVERAGE means that the conditions (temperature or precipitation) will be approximately standard when compared to long term climatological means (see our climate page).
The forecast chances are probabilistic, meaning that we cannot claim to be certain about the nature of monthly weather weeks in advance.
Even if an 80% chance of average conditions are forecast, it does not rule out that the month in question will be warmer than average, it just means it is less likely.
Furthermore, a forecast of cold or mild does not rule out temporary periods of differing weather in that month as these are forecasts averaged over the entire ~30 day period.
The forecasts are made using:
- A combination of global weather model ensemble forecasts;
- The general warming of Mickleton's climate, mostly in association with anthropogenic climate change;
- Cyclical factors like the El Niño/La Niña southern oscillation and other more advanced atmospheric cycles;
- Experience;
