Just like all over the world, Mickleton's climate is changing at an unprecedented rate due to various cyclical factors, but most scientists agree overwhelmingly that human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG's) are the most significant factor.
Above is an image explaining in simple terms how greenhouse gases contribute to the warming of the earths climate.
But what is climate?
Climate refers to the long-term average weather patterns in a specific region. Climate is usually measured over a 30-year period.
Information such as average daily maximum and minimum temperature, annual rainfall, frequency of measurable rainfalll events, snowfall, heatwave and storm frequency are examples of climate variables.
All of these variables are averaged over a long period, and just because a fluctuation occurs in the short-term does not necessarily indicate that the climate is changing.
A short term fluctuation in one of these variables is called weather, and the forecasting of these short term changes is called meteorology.
Here are some examples of climate change at a specific, unchanged location:
- The average daily maximum and/or minimum temperature increasing or decreasing over decades or more, even by a seemingly small amount.
- The frequency and/or intensity of 'heatwave' or severe cold events increasing or decreasing over decades.
- Average monthly annual rainfall increasing over many decades
- A specific season becoming warmer, drier, cooler or wetter at a different rate compared with other seasons.
Here are some examples that are not attributable to climate change at a specific, unchanged location:
- An isolated extreme weather event, such as a heatwave, cold spell, storm or snowfall.
- A small number of years that significantly deviate from the multi-decadal average (it would need to be a sustained change).
- A specific season that happened to significantly deviate from the climatological norms in the past (or present), unless the change is sustained over the average of many years.
Mickletons climate as measured during the 1991-2020 period is notably warmer than it was, for example, during the 1961-1990 period. The deviation is more significant the further back in time you go.
This sustained and average increase in temperatures will have impacts on the region.
Heatwaves (in Gloucestershire, the UK Met Office defines a heatwave as 3 or more consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 27 degrees celsius) are much more common during summer.
This means that a single day of 50 degrees followed by and preceded by days below 27 degrees would not technically be counted as a heatwave, though it would be exceptionally historic and dangerous.
Likewise, 3 months of temperatures 25 degrees or above but below 27 degrees would not be counted as a heatwave. The definition is technical and not necessarily useful in everyday conversation.
Winter months are becoming much milder and somewhat wetter, with flooding rainfall events increasing in frequency and intensity.
Snowfall and cold spells/winters are notably less frequent and intense than they were in the past, though due to natural fluctuations in weather patterns, they will still occur, albeit much less frequently.
It is less clear how annual rainfall is impacted by climate change; however, winters are overall becoming wetter while summer rainfall has not changed much.
Instead of a change in the amount of summer rainfall, its likely instead that rainfall events will become less frequent but more intense when they do occur.